Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday lower.
  • ES pivot 2141.17.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Resr of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

I guess I was too pessimistic last night as I let some reversal signs get the better of me despite some generally bullish charts.  Turns out Mr. Market just kept right on steaming ahead with the Dow now joining the SPX in record territory.  How long can this go on?  In this Night Owl Lite, we quickly consider the options and make a case for Wednesday's close.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:30 AM EDT with ES down 0.10%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises yet again from 2129.00 to 2141.17.  ES remains above its new pivot though not by much.  Still this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756

June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393 
July       2      2       2           0       0.500    -225

     And the winner is...

With the entire market now at record highs, basically no one is in the position anymore of having to hang in there while trying to get back to even.  So some profit-taking would not be unreasonable - buy low sell high, after all.  With the VIX continuing to consolidate at quite oversold levels and the futures guiding lower for the first time in days, I think we might see at least a bit of retracement on Wednesday.  I don't really get what justified Tuesday's advance in the first place.  Now I've admittedly not had much luck with bearish calls lately and it's entirely possible I'll be sticking my foot in it once again, but I'm going to go waaay out on a limb and nervously call Wednesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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