Monday, October 24, 2016

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday higher.
  • ES pivot 2132.17.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

We called last Friday lower and it indeed began with a gratifying 100 point dump right out the gate.  But then it began drifting higher and even briefly turned positive at one point in the late afternoon before sagging into the close for a small 17 point loss amid the usual op-ex gyrations.  Now that that's all out of the way, we proceed apace to the last full week of the spooky month of October.  We've been spared any major catastrphes so far but hey, there's still a week to go.

The technicals

VIX, daily
The VIX:  Once again, last Friday the VIX fell (this time 3%) on a day the rest of the market was lower too.  Most unusual, and even more so to have this happen twie in one week.  In any case, that now leaves the VIX oversold on a five day losing streak.  And Friday's candle sure wasn't a reversal sign either.  Check it out.  And note where I wrote "Going down" four days ago too.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:25 AM EDT with ES up 0.16%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2136.08 to 2132.17.  That's enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now flips back to bullish.


January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304

August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October    8      2       4           1       0.818     237

     And the winner is...

Oil put in a hammer last Friday and looks like it may be getting ready for a move higher.  In addition the VIX is shows signs of wanting to turn around too though that's not necessarily on Monday.  Meanwhile, the Dow has been stuck in the same 250 point range between 18,000 and 18,350 for over a month now.  We're now right in the middle of that after a tall doji on Friday that nearly touched the Dow's lower BB.  But the futures are higher in the Sunday overnight and the trans are looking positive so I'm going to take a chance and call Monday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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