Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2142.67.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.
The market Monday pretty much replayed Friday's action, only in mirror image.  This time we got a big pop out the gate, followed by a gradual slide back the rest of the day.  It was still good for a 77 point gain in the Dow so I can't really complain, having called Monday higher.  So on we go, as October slowly slips away and we already start to look forward to November and the most profitable part of the year.

The technicals

VIX, daily
The VIX:  On Monday the VIX made it six for six, down that is.  But the small gap-down hammer that took its RSI down to 2.3 just might be the reversal sign we've been waiting for, and that would be bad for the market.  Also, its stochastic has now curved around nicely and is in perfect position for a bullish crossover.  And at 13, we're near recent support so I'd say the VIX is ready for a move higher from here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:35 AM EDT with ES up 0.14%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2132.17 to 2142.67.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.


January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120 September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October    9      2       4           1       0.833     314

     And the winner is...

So Monday's action was certainly welcome but the Dow's gap-up inverted hammer on Monday wasn't exactly the most bullish sign in the room.  And the VIX is really looking ready to move higher, which would mean a move lower for the Dow.  On the other hand, the VIX has yet to exit its steep descending RTC so it's not certain it will reverse Tuesday.  And the futures are once again moving higher in the overnight.  Bottom line, with this sort of disagreement among my usual suspects I'm just going to have to take a pass and call Tuesday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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