Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2135.83.  Waiting for a break above or below the pivot for direction..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Recap

Given the state of the VIX last night I was a bit surprised we didn't perform better than this on Monday, but I guess the pre-Fed hand-sitting has already begun as the Dow ended down all of three and a half points and the SPX was essentially unchanged.  You can probably already guess what that means for the next two days as we await the big decision on interest rates.

The technicals

The VIX:  After looking like a sure thing to continue lower on Monday, the VIX actually rose a percent, albeit on a spinning top that left the stochastic in bearish crossover mode.  So a reversal is by no means clear at this point.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:13 AM EDT with ES up 0.14%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2130.83 to 2135.83.  However ES is basically sitting right on its new pivot so this indicator is neither bullish nor bearish at the moment.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  1      2       3           0       0.333     -18

     And the winner is...

Tonight we have essentially the same setup as last night, complete with weak looking charts in the Dow and trans but rising futures.  But I'm not falling for this gag a second time, particularly given the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Fed announcement on Wednesday.  I therefore join the hand-sitters and declare Tuesday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.