Thursday, September 22, 2016

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2146.67.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Friday  bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Well at least that excitement is finally over.  Wednesday began with an inexplicable spike up followed just after noon with an equally inexplicable spike down leaving the Dow virtually unchanged going into the big Fed reveal.  And the news when it finally came was sort of anticlimactic - no interest rate hike, just like everybody (myself included) had been predicting, all except for some poor guy who showed up on CNBC at 1:45 PM to proclaim that we were in for a "surprise" rate hike.

After some initial noodling about when the news was announced, Mr. Market finally decided he liked the result and we ended with a handy 164 point gain for our highest close in six sessions.  Hopefully that puts off all this nonsense again at least until December.  And no, I don't believe they're going to raise rates in November either.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly lower at 12:31 AM EDT with ES down 0.03%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2134.50 to 2146.67.  ES is now clearly above its new pivot so that makes this indicator bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756

June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  1      2       5           0       0.333     -18

     And the winner is...

Hmm - what to make of Wednesday's Fed-induced pop?  Technically a green candle like this is bullish.  However, it also stopped right at resistance around 18,300 on the Dow.  Indicators are all rising and only halfway between oversold and overbought.  But we're not getting any pin action from the futures in the overnight and I'll note that the market hasn't manged more than a single up day except for one three day run and another small two day move going all the way back to the middle of July.

That all makes me hesitant to call the market higher again.  On the other hand, there are no overtly bearish signs on the charts to night.  Dang, I hate to do it, but I guess all that leaves for me is to call Thursday uncertain.  I wish my crystal ball wasn't so murky lately but I just calls 'em like I sees 'em.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Due to some people who just won't honor my request not to post spam on my blog, I have had to re-enable comment moderation. Comments may take up to 24 hour to appear, depending on when they're made. Sorry about that.