Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 2130.83.  Holding above is bullish.  Now following the "Z" contract.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Recap

There are two days most months I don't like predicting: Fed days and triple-witching options expiration days.  Last Friday was a good example of the latter as the Dow abruptly reversed course retracing Thursday's triple digit gains by half.  We now move on to maybe the most momentous week of the year as everyone looks to the Fed on Wednesday.  For the record, I'm repeating my prediction that the Fed will not raise rates on Wednesday.  If they do, they're idiots.

The technicals

The VIX:  Last Wednesday, the VIX put in a tall hanging man.  On Thursday it confirmed that with a dive right through its 200 day MA.  And on Friday it fell further with a second tall red candle that confirmed a bearish stochastic crossover.  With indicators still only just off overbought, there seems to be considerable downside left here - ie. good for stocks.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:16 AM EDT with ES up 0.32%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2130.08 to 2130.83. ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish. We are now following the "Z" contract.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304 August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120 September  1      1       3           0       0.500     -14

     And the winner is...

Last Friday's charts were not particularly bullish with the lone exception of the VIX, which looks quite bearish - for the VIX that is, which means bullish for stocks.  We are also seeing the futures with their largest move higher in midnight area for some time now, possibly on rising oil prices.  So I'm going with that and calling Monday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.