Friday, January 30, 2015

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2006.83.  Holding above is bullish
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ buy signal.

Arrgh - are we back to this again?  Tuesday I called Wednesday higher, so we went lower.  Wednesday I called Thursday lower, so naturally we went higher.  It's a conspiracy by Mr. Market to drive me crazy.

The technicals

The Dow:  A bullish engulfing candle on Thursday that bounced off the lower BB and sent the indicators higher before even reaching oversold hints at more upside on Friday.

The VIX:  Unable to push higher after a big gain Wednesday, the VIX made a dark cloud cover Thursday but remains in a rising RTC with indicators wandering between oversold and overbought.  Another tough call.

Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are mixed at 12: 22AM EST with ES down 0.27% but NQ up 0.08%.  ES retraced over half of Wednesday's losses on Thursday but seems to be running out of gas in the new overnight.  RSI and OBV are going down but momentum and money flow are moving higher, and none are either overbought or oversold.  This one is too tough to call.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2009.75 to 2006.83.  But now we're back above the new pivot so this indicators turns bullish again.

Dollar index:  After a brief three day stumble the dollar is back on track and pushing higher again.  Thursday's gap-up spinning top looks like a head fake to me.

Euro:  The euro seems to be consolidating around 1.1310 but we've seen this before.  It's still too early to dump those euro shorts.

Transportation:  A nice hammer Thursday at the bottom of Wednesday's big drop signals a possible reversal here but one which requires confirmation.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    8      6       3           1       0.563

     And the winner is...

We're getting a lot of mixed messages tonight.  While the last day of January is typically bullish, this January has not been typical and the futures don't seem to be on board.  So I'm just going to play another waffle card and call Friday uncertain.  That's all, she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

On Thursday VZ put in a nice hammer that pierced its lower BB and exited its descending RTC for a bullish setup. It's now highly oversold and the stochastic is real close to a bullish crossover.  There's now enough in place for me to call it a buy at 46.11

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