Thursday, January 29, 2015

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday lower.
  • ES pivot 2009.75.  Holding below is bearish
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not yet a buy.

Holy moly!  Things sure went south in a hurry on Wednesday.  I was confident enough Tuesday night to call Wednesday higher in the face of a Fed announcement, and as usual every time I go against my rule of calling such days as uncertain, I got my head handed to me.  Ouch.  Oh well.  We live to trade another day.  And that would be Thursday so let's see what's cooking there.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow actuallty ws positive most of the day until it fell off a cliff int e final hour Wednesday to end down nearly 200 points.  In any case we blasted right through support at 17,315 like buttah, stopped only by the lower BB at 17,198.  And now the 200 day MA at 17,045 is within easy one-day striking distance.  Our next support line is oddly enough right at the same spot.  Indicators continue falling but are not yet oversold and the stochastic is in full-on bearish mode.  So there's nothing bullish about this chart tonight.

The VIX:  Zoomo!  So much for what looked like an incipient bearish evening star last night.  It turned into jolly green giant marubozu on Wednesday up a whopping 18.90%.  That was good for a bullish setup on a bearish RTC and a completed bullish stochastic crossover.  With indicators now smartly coming off oversold, this chart just looks flat-out bullish.  Oof!

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:14 AM EST with ES up  0.20%  ES had its worst day since, uh, let me scroll back here, uh well let's just say quite a long time on Wednesday giving up the 2K mark and tumbling to 1991.50.  The lower BB is not too far off and the 200 day MA is just beyond that.  And amazingly, we're still not yet oversold.  So there's nothing technically bullish on this chart tonight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dives from 2032.67 to 2009.75. And even that massive plunge wasn't enough to put ES back above the new pivot so this indicators is now distinctly bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wouldn't commit to a move lower on the dollar which was just as well since it resumed it's climb to the stratosphere on Wednesday.  Forget everything I said about a dollar topping - we ain't done yet.

Euro:  And of course that means the euro put a quick end to its two day rally with a bearish dark cloud cover Wednesday.  Looks like we're right back to the old march to zero here.  The negative overnight pin action supports that idea.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote "this chart looks continued bearish" and was it ever, down another 1.46% on Wednesday leaving us in a steep descending RTC with the indicators all falling off overbought.  This one still looks outright bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    8      5       3           1       0.643

     And the winner is...

Wednesday's action did a lot to take the charts closer to a reversal point but it doesn't look like we're quite there yet.  And yet with the Dow sitting on its lower BB and ES pretty close, there also doesn't seem to be all that much downside available from here.  But with the SPX Hi-Lo index nowhere near a reversal point and the NYSE A/D line continuing to put in lower highs, I'm just not feeling the love tonight so I'm going to call Thursday lower.  I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

Single Stock Trader

VZ is now just off its lower BB and fairly oversold but remains firmly in a descending RTC.  It's getting close to a buy but isn't quite there yet.

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