Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2271.67  Holding sbove is bullish..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

It's really nice when the technicals start working again as they have been lately.  Last night I said everything was looking bearish on the charts and the market did indeed move lower on Tuesday with the Dow off another 107.  So that takes care of January.  We now look ahead to the short month of February as the Night Owl enters its last month of publication.    Nightly posts will end on February 16th, marking our sixth anniversary.  In the meantime let's take a peek at what's ahead for Wednesday.

The technicals
VIX, daily

The VIX:  Last night I wrote of the VIX that " it looks like there could still be more upside available on Tuesday'.  And sure enough, the VIX rose another percent, though it did it on a tall lopsided gap-up red spinning top that just touched its upper BB before falling back.  I've long said that the upper BB is the Third Rail of the VIX and that it rarely spends more than a day or two up there.  So even though it's not yet overbought it sure looks to me like this might be the end of the VIX rally.  Check out this chart and see if you don't agree.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:28 AM EST with ES up 0.14%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2275.00 to 2271.67. But ES is now back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January   10      2       7           1       0.846    595

     And the winner is...

The first trading day of most months is bullish and February is no exception.  Right now though the major averages are not looking particularly bullish though with none of the usual reversal signs (oversold, RTC exit, etc.).  However, the VIX is showing some signs of wanting to move lower and the futures are all running higher in the overnight.  So on balance it's not a slam dunk and I do have to go at least part way out on the limb tonight but what the heck, I'll go ahead and call Wednesday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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