Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2275.00.  Holding below is bearish..
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Recap

Last night I put together what I thought was a reasonable bearish case for why the Dow should go lower on Monday.  And what do you know about that - the Dow did go lower, down triple digits in fact, off 123 and giving up the 20K handle in the process although a late day rally kept the damage from being even worse.  With that out of the way we now wrap up the first month of the year as we take on Tuesday.



The technicals

VIX, daily

The VIX:  Last night I wrote of the VIX that "I think it's now ready for a move higher on Monday."  And hey presto the VIX shot up 12.29% on Monday, on a gap-up green inverted hammer that exited a week and a half long descending RTC for a bullish setup.  Indicators remain oversold  and we now have a newly complete bullish crossover, so inverted hammer or not, it looks like there could still be more upside available on Tuesday.  Note the steep descending RTC exit (three parallel lines) in this chart - a bullish sign.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:30 AM EST with ES down 0.30%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2290.92 to 2275.00.   And even with that considerable drop ES remains below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    9      2       7           1       0.833    488

     And the winner is...

The bearish signs that I went through last night are still in place tonight, along with a few new ones such as regression trend channel exits in teh VIX and the Dow.  So I pretty much have to come to the same conclusion I reached last night and call Tuesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.