Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2102.33.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ a speculative swing trade buy.

After a mighty intraday stuggle the Dow was unable to finish in the green on Wednesday losing instead another 37 points.  The charts make for mighty interesting reading at this point so let's take a closer look.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow gave us a big hammer, though I'm not sure the preceding trend was long enough for it to qualify as much.  Indeed the indicators are only jsut off overboyght and the stochastic is getting ready for a bearish crossover.  So I'm not going to call the Dow higher on this candle.  It's not entirely clear right now.

The VIX:  On Tuesday the VIX gapped up early but then spent the rest of the dya retracing, ending up just 0.07% on a tall red candle.  It vaguely a giant dark cloud cover.  In any case, it looks bearish to me.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:27 AM EDT with ES up  0.27%.  ES also put in a hammer on Tuesday but oddly the advance in the overnight has also formed a bearish stochastic crossover so this chart is a bit conflicted.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2102.33 to 2091.75.  But that drop combined with a rise in the overnight leaves ES now back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish again.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote that "I'd definitely not be buying dollars at this point.".  Good thing too because the dollar took a big gap down on Tuesday off 0.52% to complete its bearish evening star and curve the stochastic around for a bearish crossover.  That all looks like lower again on Wednesday.

Euro:  And last night I werote "I hesitate to call [the euro] lower again on Tuesday."  Good thing too because it bounced right back up to 1.1225 on a classic bullish engulfing candle.  The overnight is moving higher still and that's forming a bullish stochastic crossover as well as a bullish setup on a descendign RTC exit so this chart looks higher Wednesday.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote that "there's still more downside left here" and indeed there was as the trans were hit hard on Tuesdya, down 1.2% on a tall red marubozu that sliced right through their 200 day MA, formed a bearish stochastic crossover and gave us a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit.  And with no support til 8605 that all adds up to continued lower.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        4      1       1           2       0.857    448

     And the winner is...

The charts are far from unanimous tonihgt, with the Dow and trans looking vaguely lower but the VIX and the fugures looking more positive.  After careful deliberation I'm going to go with the latter and call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wrote of VZ "
I don't think it's done going down".and good thinking because ti was down another 18 cents on Tuesday this time though with a tall green spinning top that just exatly touched its 200 day MA.  With indicators still running just off oversold this looks like a decent reversal sign but I need confirmation first so I'm not getting on this bus yet, though my inclinations are bullish at this point.

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