Friday, March 6, 2015

Friday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher only if ES stays above it pivot, else lower.
  • ES pivot 2098.83.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ again still not a buy.

On Thursday the Dow kind of wandered all over the place but eventually ended with a modest 39 point gain, contrary to my expectations.  Oh well, no great loss, we simply move on to Friday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Despite the Dow's 0.21%gain Thursday it sill constitutes a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit.  With the bearish stochastic crossover in full force and all the indicators falling off overbought I'm afraid I still dont' see the bull case here.

The VIX:  In retrospect, Thursday' 1.34% loss in the VIX was adequately telegraphed by Wednesdya' tall inverted hammer.  I did at least finally say last night "I'm not so sure about an advance here on Thursday."  So now we have a second long-legged doji, this one a gap-down.  The three candles make a bearish evening star so my guess is that we could see further losses on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:19 AM EST with ES down 0.04% but NQ up 0.02%  ES did some retracing on Thursday and that was enough to curve the stochastic around in preparation for a bullish crossover but we're not there yet.  I've not quite decided if Thursday's action was a reversal or a head fake, and there's little to go on in the overnight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2095.50 to 2098.83. That leaves ES sitting exactly on the pivot so this indicator tonight is neither bullish nor bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I refused to call the dollar lower despite having hit its upper BB.  Good thing too because it just motored higher Thursday, climbing that same upper BB in a seemingly unstoppable run to infinity - and beyond.  Same story tonight.

Euro:  The beleaguered euro just keeps going lower and lower., closing this time at 1.1028 its lowest close since the mid-Cretaceous period.  And still no end in sight.  Were the currency market not such a morass of Machiavellian manipulation, I'd be shorting it myself here.

Transportation:  Last night I noted a reversal warning here but added that it required confirmation.  I'm glad I did too because we got another 0.15% leg down with what at this point looks like a hammer.  Still, we remain in a downtrend so once again, we need confirmation of a reversal before calling this chart higher.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      1      1       1           1       0.667     87

     And the winner is...

With a bunch of employment numbers coming out Friday morning and ES sitting exactly on its pivot, this seems like the perfect time for a conditional call.  If ES can stay above its pivot by mid-morning Friday we close higher, but if it breaks below the pivot, we close lower.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

We were right at least that VZ was going lower Thursday.  In fact it now looks quite bearish with a break below the 200 day MA, a completed bearish stochastic crossover, indicators that have peaked but are still overbought, and a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit.  I don't think the selling's done yet here.

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