Monday, March 2, 2015

Monday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
  • ES pivot 2104.83.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ - nearing a short-term top.

The technicals worked nicely last Friday and we got the drop I was looking for. So with the miserable month of February out of the way, we turn our attention to March.  Will it roar in like a lion?  Let's see what the charts have to say about that.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow confirmed Thursday's hanging man with a r4ed marubozu that fell out of the rising RTC for a bearish trigger, completed a bearish stochastic crossover, and continued sending the indicators lower off overbought.  That all spells continued lower to me.

The VIX:  I didn't call Friday's VIX and it was just as well since it put in a red bearish engulfing marubozu centered on Thursday's inverted hammer.  That keeps us in a descending RTC so there are really no bullish signs here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:23 AM EST with ES up 0.13%.  ES had its worst day since February 9th on Friday with three down in a row marking a new downtrend.  But the Sunday overnight seems to have something else in mind making me cautious about calling Monday lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops from 2108.75 to 2104.83.  But that still leaves us just above the new pivot so this indicator, for now anyway, turns bullish.

Dollar index:  On Friday the dollar put in a green candle but still failed to break Thursday's high, touching its upper BB for the second day in a row.  Indicators are overbought , though not extremely.  That leaves this chart too tough for me.  Sorry.

Euro:  The euro on the other hand has clearly resumed its march to parity with a small red spinning top on Friday being non-confirmed in the Sunday overnight.  More downside is in store here.

Transportation:  With three black crows, the trans are now clearly in a downtrend.  Indicators all continue falling towards oversold so this chart continues to look bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   7      4       5           3       0.714    265

     And the winner is...

The first day of most months is historically bullish but that hasn't been the case for March the past few years.  The charts are looking pretty bearish tonight but I always hate to go against the futures, particularly on a Sunday night, and when ES is drifting higher and has just crossed above its new pivot.  So meh, I'm going to do a conditional call: if ES can stay above its new pivot by mid-morning Monday, we'll close higher, and if it breaks back under and stays there, we close lower.  So sez I.

Single Stock Trader

VZ posted a small gain Friday but with three spinning tops in a row and overbought indicators, I'm looking for a pullback soon.  This wouldn't be a bad exit point and I'd not be entering long right now.

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