Friday, November 6, 2015

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2098.33.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Thursday was a squeaker. I called it lower and indeed the Dow descended mightily right out the gate but then it wandered its way back up to almost break-even by the time the bell rang. This probably reflects a lot of uncertainty about Friday's upcoming job numbers. And that's one tape I have no intention of fighting. Therefore I will cut right to the chase: I am simply going to defer on this particular forecast. No charts tonight as there's no point to it.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2080.92 to 2094.25.  .However, a sudden midnight rally in ES has just managed to punch through the new pivot thus turning this indicator back to bullish again, though not at this point by much.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314

September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      7       5           1       0.533    538

November   1      1       1           1       0.667   -161

     And the winner is...

It seems that this Friday's job numbers are being more closely watched than most, as they apparently may influence the Fed on whether to raise rates in December or not.  Accordingly, the market seems to be sitting on its hands waiting for that as seen by the number of dojis on the charts tonight and the fact that the futures are basically going nowhere in the overnight.  Therefore the only sensible thing for me to do is call Friday uncertain.  The market will move when the numbers come out.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

After ending Wednesday with three black crows , Verizon surprised me on Thursday by actually gaining $0.06 on a small doji star. That left the indicators in somewhat of a confused state with RSI rising but the rest of them falling. We're now in a new descending RTC with only a weak reversal warning, particularly since the indicators have not yet hit oversold. So this one is worth watching but it's not yet a swing trade buy.

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