Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Tuesday stock market fprecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2086.58.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Original vintage poster VERBIER VALAIS  MOUNTAINS c1975Well when I'm wrong, I'm wrong. ES was looking pretty dismal last night until about 3 AM after which it just took off and kept on rising. The net result was a 165 point gain in the Dow which was enough to keep the latest rising RTC intact. Now tonight is one of those nights where I'm just out of time so it's going to be another Night Owl Lite night . Just the results, no blather.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2079.42 to 2086.58.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314

September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      7       5           1       0.533    538

November   0      1       0           0       0.000   -165

     And the winner is...

There's no real clarity to the charts tonight.  The VIX fell but remains in its recent trading range, the futures are exactly unchanged and the pattern lately has been for a day or two of rest after one day triple digit gains in the Dow.  Accordingly, I'm just going to throw up my hands and declare Tuesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Verizon continued its wayward ways on Monday being one of the few losers in the Dow as it put in a red hanging man in dark cloud cover position. With indicators still overbought this now looks more like a short than a buy.

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