Friday, May 13, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday - no call.
  • ES pivot 2064.75.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade.

Herbstlicht am Genfersee Lac Leman Poster Affiche Suisse SwitzerlandUnable to figure much of anything out from the charts last night I called Thursday as uncertain.  Turns out Mr. Market didn't have any better idea either as the Dow ended up all of nine points while the SPX fell a whopping 0.35 points.  That's about as uncertain as it gets.  Now on Thursday the Night Owl was hit by a perfect storm of sequential appointments and errands with the net result that I had zero time to even check on the markets much less do any trading.  That has cascaded into the evening and left me completely out of time.  Therefore I'm just going to have to take a pass on Friday's market.  Didn't have time to study it, so no call.  Hey, there's only one of me and sometimes stuff happens.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:08 AM EDT with ES down 0.33%.  

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2064.75 to 2060.00. ES.remains below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        4      2       2           1       0.714     433

     And the winner is...

Who knows?  Sometimes you just need to take a break and this was one of those days.  Though a cursory glance at the charts does seem to suggest we're going lower again.  So that's all she didn't even write.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..


  1. Hello and how are you doing?

    I have always appreciate your hard work in daily articles.

    I am very interesting in knowing why you stop trading the ES and now trading the YM futures?

    I apologize in advance if you explained this already.



    1. No major reason. ES and YM are highly correlated so in some sense it doesn't really matter which one you trade. YM though isn't quite as wild as ES thanks to its lower volume and it moves in smaller increments. With ES, you can lose $20 in the blink of an eye. With YM, it's only $5 :-)

  2. Thank you so much for straight forward answer. I am still trading ES. And yes, its all about the considering the losses.

    Thank you and great read. Keep up the good work



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