Friday, October 23, 2015

Stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher.
  • ES pivot 2039.17.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

I'm sure glad I called Thursday uncertain because after looking decidedly bearish I never expected a 321 point blast form the Dow.  This is one of those cases where the news (form the ECB in this instance) trumps the technicals.  Anyway, it's another Night Owl Lite as I find myself continued to be sidetracked by Real Life (TM).  I had time enough to study the charts but not enough to write about them.  And yes, it takes me about an hour to do the individual chart rundownns.  So once again, it's results only as we skip the blather.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2016.75 to 2039.17. 


 Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314

September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    4      5       4           1       0.500    406

     And the winner is...

There's always a chance the market could retrench after a big up-day, but we've now seen a decent breakout to the upside from almost a week of consolidation.  Also, both the Dow and SPX are now very close to their 200 day MA's and on Thursday ES did in fact break above its 200 day MA.  With the charts overall positive and the VIX tumbling, I'm going to go out on a limb and call Friday higher.  That's all she barely wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

On Thursday VZ got caught up in the general euphoria and despite looking lower last night, posted a healthy gain.  We're obviously now in a month-long uptrend but I've yet to find a suitable swing-trade entry point  And Thursday didn't do it for me either.  Such is life.

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