Thursday, April 1, 2010

Dow Forecast for 4/1/10

Today's action played out about like I thought. Dow down 50 took us back to the bottom of the trading range established a week ago. With the ES posting non-trivial gains (up over 400) as of right now (1:45 AM EDT), I'm looking for some recovery tomorrow, though being the day before a holiday and with jobless numbers coming out, who knows. I think the Street has already baked in a good result there, so it's going to take some really good numbers to help out the bulls.

All in all though, I'm looking at the range bound trade and figuring that what comes down must go up. Also note that the Dow has been unable to pull in more than two consecutive down days (not counting small range doji days) since the tumble way back in mid-January. Nonetheless, I see no major buying opportunites right now. I did not trade today and don't expect to tomorrow either.

I ended the quarter up a respectable 9.6% YTD and was pleased to see that I had only three losing days in all of March, a new monthly record for me.

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