OK, here's today's action in the Dow. I have to say, I'm stumped. You tell me what this means. The Dow closed dead on the lower RTC line, exactly where it did on October 19th. And the next day, the Dow rallied furiously. However, unlike then, today's candle is a classic Hanging Man and that's never a good sign. On the other hand, the rally off the lows at 1:20 PM suggest an absence of true selling pressure. We actually had more extreme high TICK readings today than lows.
So we have a bearish setup but not a trigger. In a way, it's simple. If the Dow is lower tomorrow or fails to close above 11,175. then we have a sell signal. Otherwise,we cannot really say the trend is broken. Which way will it go? Who knows.
I'm playing it safe. No trades today but I have also not yet gone short. I'm waiting for some confirmation that we're headed lower and I'm willing to take the heat until I get it. However, I do have to say that intuitively, I think the uptrend is over.
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