Technical Stock Market Forecasts for Swing Traders
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Close but no cigar
Today's confused and confusing action briefly saw us dip below the lower RTC line in the Dow but then close back inside for a meager 10 point gain. Take a look - what do you think? If you believe that today's candle was a hammer and that the finish inside the RTC averted a bearish setup, then the uptrend remains intact despite the losses of the past few days. And today's volume was slightly higher than yesterday. Finally, although the NYSE TICK took a number of deeply negative stabs throughout the day, the mean pretty much just wobbled around zero and actually improved as the day went on.
Personally, I think the recent action is being motivated primarily by the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming G20 meeting, or as one wag on CNBC called it, "G19 versus the US". But from a purely technical standpoint, I'm going to have to leave the green arrow in place and not call a turnaround just yet. Tomorrow may tell a different story. It won't take much of a dip from here to create the bearish setup ... but that candle today sure looks like a hammer, and the current RTC is quite strong with a Pearson's R of 0.959. We'll see.
No trades today. I went through my entire watch list and couldn't find anything with a sufficiently attractive risk/reward ratio to warrant jumping in.
Michele is a swing trader, a night owl, and a student of Japanese candlestick charts. She retired from a large tech company at the age of 50 and has now been trading US stocks and occasionally the e-minis on a full-time basis as an independent trader since 2004.
The Night Owl Trader publishes every trading day late at night (or very early in the morning) around 1 or 2 AM, with occasional bonus commentary and analysis thrown in on weekends.
The Night Owl is independent, ad-free, and made freely available to all. Contact me at nightowltrader (at) gmail.com.
BB - Bollinger Bands COT - Commitment of Traders Report DCB - Dead Cat Bounce MA - Moving Average RTC - Regression Trend Channel YTD - Year To Date
(My lawyer made me do it) This blog is not trading or investment advice, account management or direction. All trades listed here are presented only as examples of the author's personal trading style. Investing entails significant risk and trading entails even greater risks. Act accordingly.