Thursday, November 11, 2010

Close but no cigar

Today's confused and confusing action briefly saw us dip below the lower RTC line in the Dow but then close back inside for a meager 10 point gain. Take a look - what do you think? If you believe that today's candle was a hammer and that the finish inside the RTC averted a bearish setup, then the uptrend remains intact despite the losses of the past few days. And today's volume was slightly higher than yesterday. Finally, although the NYSE TICK took a number of deeply negative stabs throughout the day, the mean pretty much just wobbled around zero and actually improved as the day went on.

Personally, I think the recent action is being motivated primarily by the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming G20 meeting, or as one wag on CNBC called it, "G19 versus the US". But from a purely technical standpoint, I'm going to have to leave the green arrow in place and not call a turnaround just yet. Tomorrow may tell a different story. It won't take much of a dip from here to create the bearish setup ... but that candle today sure looks like a hammer, and the current RTC is quite strong with a Pearson's R of 0.959. We'll see.

No trades today. I went through my entire watch list and couldn't find anything with a sufficiently attractive risk/reward ratio to warrant jumping in.

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