Sunday, November 21, 2010

Weekend Reading

Here's something that's apparently a long-running tradition, but I only just discovered it recently, and it's great. If you don't already have a copy of The Stock Trader's Almanac, run don't walk to your nearest book-selling website (I got mine from Amazon) and buy one today.

Published annually, the STA is like the Old Farmer's Almanac, only for the stock market. It's just brimming with useful nuggets of historical data, statistics, trends, tables, and charts all in a wire-bound daily calendar format that lies open flat on your desk. Market holidays, options expiration days, everything is in there. And though it's also available as an e-book, treat yourself to the real deal. It deserves a prominent place on your office desk. There is something interesting on every page.

The Stock Traders Almanac is like a cell phone or a microwave oven. I never knew I needed one before they existed; now I don't know how I ever got along without them.

Chart of the Week


And here's a chart I found on a site by the name of www.financialarmageddon.com. It shows the correlation between the S&P and the Consumer Confidence Index, going back 20 years. Note how during most of that time, there is a high degree of correlation between the two. It makes intuitive sense: when the market goes up, people feel good; when it goes down they feel bad.
But look what happened after the 2008 financial collapse: since then the market has rebounded nicely, but consumer confidence remains in the toilet. I interpret this as being bullish for the market. The two major tops in this chart (in 2000 and 2007) were both marked by consumer confidence readings that were not only much higher than now, but much closer to the level of the S&P (going by the way this chart was set up) at the time.

You have to admit, this is a most interesting chart.

1 comment:

  1. Very interesting chart of SPX vs. CCI. Could be bullish as you mention, but could be bearish. The recent rally was/is fueled by low rates and printing monopoly money. Once the madness at the fed ends (if it ever does?) the 2 charts will come into line again. And I don't think that means the green line will go up if ya catch my drift. :)

    ReplyDelete

Due to some people who just won't honor my request not to post spam on my blog, I have had to re-enable comment moderation. Comments may take up to 24 hour to appear, depending on when they're made. Sorry about that.