Monday, December 20, 2010

Directionless markets

Well, it seemed like a reasonable thesis yesterday, but clearly the market disagreed with me. After expecting gains for two days, we got losses, ending today down just under 14 points in the Dow, though once again the S&P and the Nasdaq both posted small gains to finish up a quarter percent each. In any event, today's Dow loss fell entirely outside the lower line of the RTC channel. This is a bearish trigger. Ordinarily, I'd change the trend arrow from green to red at this point, but because of the low volume and the time of year, I'm not confident enough to do that right now. So instead, I will punt and put up the "who knows" icon. With such tiny daily moves, we're kind of back to the situation we were in from the 3rd through the 9th. There's not much money to be made swing trading this sort of market. Right now I'm leaving my long hat on, but only because I don't see any real need to remove it.

My theory on the VIX was also wrong, but though it didn't fall as I expected, it also didn't rise very much, gaining just 0.30 today. Today's Dow candle looks like a doji, but I think it reflects more a lack of leadership in this environment than the usual indecision of a turning point. Personally, I was actually up 0.42% today thanks largely to the performance of my low price/high yield portfolio. No trades today.

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