More Indecision

Today saw the second attempt to breach the November 11,400 resistance (red horizontal line on the chart), and like the first on December 7th, this one failed too. We actually hit an intraday high of 11,480 before falling back to finish at 11,429 with a modest 18 point gain on the day. Ordinarily with a chart that looks like this, I'd start a rising trend channel here, but with a total gain of just 58 points in four days, I'd like one more day of gains to do that. And I'm not convinced we'll get that tomorrow.

Actually, I still don't see any good signposts that might provide a clue as to where we're headed the next few days. The fact that the Dow has managed to close higher the past two days is encouraging, but the rejection of the 11,400 level is not, especially coming in the form of a gravestone doji, which is bearish. Also, the indicators are looking overbought, especially the RSI and stochastic. And the daily VIX looks primed to rise, which is also bearish for stocks.

On the other hand, the futures are holding their own right now, fairly late into the night (it is now 1:40 AM EST) with the ES up one tick, the NQ down two and YM up 3. So all in all, lacking any clear direction, it's too early to declare a new trend and I will be sitting on the sidelines a while longer.

I do think the next attempt to cross that 11,400 line will be succesful - I'm just not sure when it's coming. Maybe when our Fearless Leader announces a tax deal, hopefully before the end of the month. We'll see.

Trades

Today I finally sold my AKS trade that turned into an investment, at 14.96, for a $12 loss. Had I held on a bit longer, I would have seen it climb to a high of $15.42 before falling back to end at 14.96 again. I think it's going lower tomorrow.