Friday, December 3, 2010

Weekly review: Uptrend established

I was a bit concerned yesterday that after two such big up days, we'd give it all back today and fall back into the 11,000 - 11,200 trading range. But apparently, all the day traders decided not to bail out for the weekend leaving us with a modest 19.7 point gain in the Dow to end the week at 11,382. And as you can see from the daily chart here, this keeps us right in the middle of the new ascending RTC channel I started from 11/30. I'm sure glad I had my long hat on.

And since it's the end of the week, now let's take a look at the weekly Dow chart, going back to the start of the September rally.Technically, there's not much to dislike here either. This week formed a big bullish engulfing pattern and the weekly volume on this green candle was about double last week's red one. Dr. Brett Steenbarger was always pointing out how important volume was to judge the significance of a particular price movement. By that measure, this week was significant indeed. Finally, we can see a nice bullish crossover in the stochastic. This all points towards an assault on last month's high of 11,451 before the end of the month. The uptrend is established; my long hat remains on.

On This Day in History
1929 - US President Herbert Hoover announces to the U.S. Congress that the worst effects of the recent stock market crash are behind the nation and the American people have regained faith in the economy.
Performance

The Dow gained an impressive 2.6% this week. By comparison, I was up 2.55%. It would have been more but for the 1% loss I took on Tuesday. But you can't really be disappointed with a 2.5+% gain on any week. And for today at least, I handily outperformed the Dow, gaining 1.38% vs. to Dow's 0.17%. This now gives me a year to date gain of 26.5%, compared to the Dow with 9.15%.

And my low price/high yield portfolio is doing very nicely indeed. It's giving me a yield of more than 10% and I also now have a capital appreciation of 10%, just since last July.

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