Uptrend continues

The purpose of stock market forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good.
- Warren Buffett

So it seems. I really did not expect the market to be up at all today, much less the impressive 50 point gain we saw in the Dow. I'm not too disappointed though as I ended the day up 0.8%, fueled mainly by the 9.27% pop in CSIQ, my last remaining "trade that turned into an investment", left over from last year. But apparently I'm not alone in expecting lower. Even our local newspaper had a short article to the effect that "markets may be lower today based on futures action the night before". Yup, they got fooled too.

And if that wasn't enough, today I got an email newsletter from the great Dr. Alexander Elder. In it, he writes,

In summary, the US stock market appears poised at razor’s edge. While the trend is clearly up, both on weekly and daily charts, the NH-NL is flashing red warning signs. It reminds us that bull markets do not move in straight lines, and this uptrend is ready for a pause.

(You can read more from Dr. Elder at elder.com)

But if we look at the RTC in the daily chart here, it still does not look like this "pause" is at hand. But I now think it's coming soon. Note that today's close brings us very close to the 11,867 resistance level marking the top of the "summer shelf" of 2008. I think at this point there's only 30 more points of upside before the market takes a rest for the assault on that line. So although I'm going to leave the green swing trend arrow in place, my feeling now is that it might be changing before the beginning of next week. We'll be looking for a doji candlestick or a hanging man.