Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Trend unclear, upside favored

Yesterday I wrote that I was more optimistic about today becasue the VIX looked like it was going to reverse course. It was indeed unable to advance any further and we were rewarded with a 68 point gain in the Dow to close at 11,892, putting us back above the 11,867 resistance line. With the futures now up (at 2 AM EST) by 0.19% to 0.38% and the VIX looking like it will decline further tomorrow, I'm fairly confident that Friday's drop was not the start of "the correction" everyone is waiting for. All it seems to have done was relieve some of the overbought pressure that stalled our attempts to cross the 12K level last week. It looks to me like we may be gearing up for another attempt later this week, though probably not tomorrow just yet.

In the meantime, we're waiting for a new swing trend to become apparent though I should note that we still remain within the middle of the longer uptrend going back to the start of last December.

No trades today.

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