Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Finally some clarity?

Today sure felt like a washout low, featuring an incredible nearly 300 point dive right off the open, followed by a fairly steady retracement the rest of the day. The net result was a pretty decent hammer candle, similar to yesterday's only much larger.

I don't know it this "double hammer" is even an official pattern, but it's pretty unusual. I went over the last 10 years of daily Dow charts and only found four other instances of it. In all four cases, the following day was higher. And the fast stochastic has now done a bullish crossover - that's always a good indicator.

In addition, this evening (at 1:30 AM EDT) the ES and NQ are actually up for a change, +0.14% and 0.11% respectively. And as I write, the YM just turned positive too.  And even the Nikkei is up by over 3.5% now.

Also, the VIX today executed a pretty amazing pattern of its own today, putting in a huge gap up hanging man that broke way above the upper Bollinger band. I looked at the daily VIX back to 2003 and only found four other instances of something like this. In three of the four, the VIX fell the next day. In the fourth case, it fell a day later.

Now I know that what few readers I might still have left are probably shaking their heads by this point, because I've said it a couple of times already and been very very wrong but by gosh, it sure looks to me like we're headed higher tomorrow.

Trades

No trades today, but speaking of going higher, check out this textbook chart. This is Ford. Three important  things happened together here today:

first it broke back above its 200 day MA in a convincing manner, always a bullish sign,

second, it broke up over its descending regression trend channel, a bullish setup,

and third, it put in a huge bullish engulfing pattern that not only spanned yesterday's range, but the five days before that too.

I'm about as certain as I can get this one is going higher. Disclaimer: I'm long F and not planning on selling anytime soon.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Due to some people who just won't honor my request not to post spam on my blog, I have had to re-enable comment moderation. Comments may take up to 24 hour to appear, depending on when they're made. Sorry about that.