Well, the 12,220-12,250 area I talked about as being resistance yesterday certainly acted that way today. After looking like my call was going to be wrong most of the day, the Dow took a dive in the final half hour and redeemed me for a 23 point loss. At this point I'd say that purely on a technical basis it looks like we're in for more of the same tomorrow, both from the Dow chart and the VIX chart.
But the futures are all up right now. ES, NQ, and YM are up 0.36%, 0.44%, and 0.31% respectively at 2 AM EDT. This is not the sort of behavior one would expect from a market that's looking to go lower. And I really have to wonder about just what caused that sudden breakdown at 3:30 this afternoon.
I think the key tomorrow will be the daily pivot, which was 12,217 today. Any action that stays below this number is bearish. But if we can get above this level and then break above 12,250 then I'd definitely bet on a higher close. But there's just enough uncertainty in the air that I'm not making a call tonight either way. The indicators are saying one thing and the futures are saying another. We'll just have to see what develops tomorrow.
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