More mixed messages

I was wrong about Friday's action in the Dow.  We ended up with a 29 point decline which provides us with a bearish confirmation of the hanging man we saw Thursday.  On this basis, I'd say that we're going lower tomorrow.  Also, all of the daily indicators have peaked and are now headed lower, another bearish sign.

However, all three futures are actually up right now at 12:30 AM EDT with both the ES and YM up by 0.23%, and the NQ up 0.40%.  These are non-trivial numbers.  Also, the ES moved above its daily pivot which for Monday becomes 1326.  And the 12,390 support level on the Dow was tested on Friday but ultimately held.  And Friday's loss was on lower volume.

Also there is now news out of Libya that Col. Khadaffi has apparently agreed to a plan to end the fighting there (though I'll believe that when I see it).  That alone could account for the rising futures.  And oil, after a big run-up on Friday is actually down a bit in the overnight.

Meanwhile, the VIX on Friday jumped up to the top of its recent consolidation range to close at 17.87.  The 18 level is resistance for the VIX.  However, it still has more room to rise than to fall and that fact is bearish for stocks.

So there you have it - another night of mixed messages from the market.  I guess it all boils down to whether you want to believe the charts or the futures.  The charts suggest we're going lower tomorrow, the futures are guiding higher.  If the Libyan news proves true and oil goes lower, then we could move higher tomorrow.  But at this point, this is one of those times that's just too tough to call.  We'll just have to wait and see.