My call last night for a higher close today proved to be correct, with the Dow gaining another 93 points. Today's close at 12,719 leaves us just 62 points shy of the May 10th high, and not much further from the YTD high on May 2nd. Tonight I'm going to base my call entirely on the candlestick pattern, since I'm just not feeling the love from either the futures (which are basically flat at 1:45 AM EDT) or the VIX (which is acting oddly today).
That leaves us with a recent daily chart starting on June 27th with five big solid green candles, one small doji of indecision and then two more green candles, smaller but still solid, indicating that the indecision was resolved to the upside. There is not even the hint of a reversal pattern here and volume increased today over yesterday, so I'm going to have to say that we still have room to run at least another 50 points higher tomorrow.
The indicators are all still in "oversold broken" territory, so there's nothing to see there. J'Trader's Market Analysis system went short today. I think that might be a day early, but we'll see. I could be wrong, and Lord knows I am often enough, but I just don't see the selling pressure yet.
Oh, one more thought - there are some big jobs numbers coming out tomorrow and the buzz on the Street is that they're going to come in BTE. I don't know how they decide this, but these rumors seem to be right more often than not. So that could also provide a boost to tomorrow's results. That's all she wrote.
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Hello,
ReplyDeleteThe reason the indicators are giving you mixed signals is because the bots are programed that way, to create and take advantage of confusion IMO. The three ETFs I follow keep going higher because the 60 minute chart remains in an uptrend, the SPY on Tuesday had a double top on that time frame because IMO. Price got away enough from it's rising 20 MA. And on Wednesday some shorts try to push it lower but were trapped and that failure helped the bulls close the SPY at the top of now new base and the 20 MA. Had catch up with price by the closing of that day so once the base absorbed all the selling next day's gap up gave the SPY new legs irregardless of how many green candles on the daily chart,
Now on the SPY if Thursday high are not traded over a lower high on that time frame will get the bots selling same as SODA last Thursday 60 minute double top at doldrums and extended 30% from its rising 20 MA. On the daily chart what a gift that was........
Trend analysis will get you the best risk reward IMO.
Good luck.
Interesting observations. I have read that somewhere between 50% and 70% of all trading today is done by programs. I agree that trend analysis is key, particularly for swing trading.
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