Friday, August 5, 2011

Capitulation?

Well my cable modem died this evening so I'm using the 3G network on my tablet to connect to the web. It's good for emergency use, but my data plan in limited so tonight's post is going to be short.

There's not much to say tonight anyway after today's horrendous slaughter on Wall St. Last night I was sure that the hammer we saw yesterday would mean we were going higher today. Boy was I ever wrong. Today I had my worst day by far since I started trading. In my defense, I will say that a) I wasn't the only one who got fooled and b) I did say I was going to wait for a confirmation today before declaring a reversal at hand.

That said, today had the feel of capitulation to it, especially by the end of the session and given the extraordinary relative volume and the VIX hitting nearly 32, closing above the level it hit during the Japanese quake/tsunami panic back in March. The best that can be said is that the charts are going exponential now and that generally means a turnaround is near.

But with the VIX at these levels (and I was sure wrong about the VIX going lower today too), all bets are off. I'm going to continue to stand aside until I see a turnaround. This isn't a falling knife, it's a falling guillotine and there's no way I'm going to try catching it.

Good luck to all tomorrow and heaven help us. Oh and a big thanks to Emperor Nerobama for tanking our economy and destroying America.

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