Weekly wrap-up

The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

Clint Eastwood, the Good

Well, I for one am glad to see this week end.  Tonight we  turn once again to Clint Eastwood for inspiration.  The Good was clearly my call for today, "we have still lower to go on Friday" which was right on the money with the Dow shedding another 173 points to close at 10,818. I also suggested we were going to retest the Dow's 200 week MA at 10,730

That's still on the table, and we're certainly headed that direction. The Bad was my thinking last Sunday that the week would end higher. It finally proved to be just another bad week on Wall St.  And this steenkin' market of course lately is just plain Ugly.

We're at an interesting juncture right now.  While today's drop was discouraging, the fact that we did not break under the 200 week MA was positive.  The Dow weekly chart is showing definite signs of being oversold now.  However, the last two big red daily candles in and of themselves show no sign of a turnaround on Monday.  I do want to see how the futures act on Sunday night before making any forecasts though.  I'll do a more in-depth analysis then.

Ticker Sense

I am pleased to announce that the Night Owl is now part of the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll over at the Ticker Sense web site (now in my blog list in the sidebar). The poll, taken each week, answers the question of where you think the SPX will be in 30 days, either up, down, or neutral.

The latest poll was split pretty evenly in a 3-way tie, reflecting the indecision we've been getting in the charts lately as seen in the frantic yo-yo action of the past two weeks.  It will be interesting to see, given the ugly week we just had, how the numbers shake out when the new poll comes out next week.

The poll is worth watching of course because of the common perception that in the markets, the majority is usually wrong, making it something of a contrarian indicator.  If you look at the historical graph on the site, you can see that this is to a large extent the case - though not always.  In any event, the URL's of the participants are given along with the results and they make for some fascinating reading themselves.

There's lots of great information on Ticker Sense, including graphs, charts, links, and commentary - I highly recommend it and I'm putting it on my daily reading list.  Disclaimer - I have no association with Ticker Sense other than as a poll participant.