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- Thursday bias higher, low confidence. Bull-bear ratio is 5:2.
- ES pivot 1181.75. Current price is far below that.
- Friday bias uncertain..
- Monthly outlook: bias down, but may change pending Europe news
- ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Tuesday night I called Wednesday lower. Clearly, the Night Owl laid a great big egg as the Dow ended with a 141 point gain instead. Oh well - you can't win 'em all, especially with the VIX stubbornly stuck in the stratosphere.
Forget the technicals, today was completely news-driven out of Europe. Bad at first, then good was all it took to power a big rally even allowing for last minute profit taking from the day traders. And I'm guessing that more of the same is in store. The market seems bent on following the Escher roadmap, walking sideways up the down staircase upside-down.
The technicals
The Dow: Put in a wide-range doji today, not really a good reversal indicator and since the indicators are all definitely headed up from oversold now, I have to give this as a +1 bulls. Also, we exited the latest descending regression trend channel and that's also bullish.
The VIX: Fell under its near-term resistance for a 6 and a quarter percent drop. Today's red candle plus indicators that are still just coming off overbought suggest a lower VIX tomorrow and that's bullish for stocks.
VIX futures:The futures tried again to go over their upper Bollinger band and again failed. This chart looks like the VIX itself, so +1 bulls again.
Market index futures: All three are down at 1:20 AM with ES down by a non-trivial 0.38%. At this point, the action suggests a dark cloud cover in the making, though it's risky making assumptions fro half-baked candles. Still, +1 bears.
ES daily pivot: Now 1181.75. We're just above this now at 1183.50, so the pivot is key. Going under and staying under is bearish. Bouncing off is bullish. It's too early to make that call, so no points.
Dollar index: Dropped again today reflecting an improving euro on some calming news out of Europe. Still oversold and looks to have room to run lower on Thursday. +1 bulls.
Oil: Kind of wandering around lately, but since it's near the upper end of its recent trading range, the suggestion is for it to move lower. Because of its current market correlation, that's +1 bears.
Morningstar Market Fair Value Index: Rose to 0.84 today. +1 bulls.
History: Nothing in particular on the day before triple witching, so no points.
And the winner is...
The bulls, with a bull-bear ratio of 5:2. But my intuition is less positive than the numbers would suggest. So I'm going to watch the pivot again. If we hold above, that's bullish for the close. Falling through will mean a lower close. Keep an eye on ES 1181.75 before the open.
ES Fantasy Trader
Clearly, the ESFT was on the wrong side of this trade, dropping a whopping 21 points for a stinging loss. The account is now $118,875 since inception on 8/18 after 14 trades, 9 wins, 5 losses. When I'm that badly wrong, I like to stand aside for a day and figure out why. When you start losing at the blackjack table, the best thing to do is always to get up and walk away. ES is no different.
SLD 10 ES false SEP11 Futures 1159.25 USD GLOBEX SEP 14 00:56:24
BOT 10 ES false SEP11 Futures 1180.25 USD GLOBEX SEP 14 12:50:46
Posts
If we don't have fancy software (silverlight), where is a good place to get your ES values so I can monitor that?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Huh - you come up with the darndest questions. My first reaction was to say, "Well obviously you can just google it on the web someplace". But I tried that myself and discovered to my great surprise that there doesn't seem to be anywhere that give you today's ES daily pivot.
ReplyDelete(I'll admit I didn't check past thre fis tthre pages of results, so it might still be out there somewhere).
I found a bunch of places with old data, abandoned sites, etc., and a few pay sites, but by gosh it looks like if you want today's daily pivot, you're going to have to read my blog :-) Go figure.
It only changes once a day, so it's not like you need some real-time app for it.
Gosh, I wish Blogspot offered a way to edit comments. Obviously
ReplyDelete"thre fis tthre pages of results,"
should have read
"the first three pages of results,".
How the heck did I type that?
Brain going faster than fingers... I do it all the time.
ReplyDeleteWith that said, I found a pivot point place, but it is in the middle of other stuff:
http://www.mytrade.com/shadowtraderproswing
What I was wondering was where to get live ES data without having special software (live feeds) or without using Silverlight (blocked at work). I have tried financial info at Google, Yahoo, and Marketwatch.
Thanks
AFAIK, there is no source of free realtime ES data. I get mine from eSignal and I pay (dearly) for the privilege. It's just a cost of doing business.
ReplyDeleteDo you have an online broker? They should give you the futures too. My broker, Interactive Brokers, has a trading platform you can run on your PC (without Silverlight) or directly on their server as a web app. I'm sure the others are similar.