Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Wednesday technically lower but Fed news will determine outcome.
- ES pivot 1198.58. Pivot in play: staying above is bullish.
- Rest of week bias uncertain, depends on Fed.
- Monthly outlook: bias uncertain, watch Fed meeting for clues.
- ES Fantasy Trader standing aside..
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| The Lavalite Market |
You see, the premise of the Lavalite World was that although the planet had a surface, it was always changing like the blobs in a lavalite. Therefore you had no reference points. If you left home in the morning, you could come back that afternoon and have no idea where your house had gone. Supposedly, living there drove you mad. (And remember, there was no GPS in 1979).
Anyway, that's what this market feels like. Last night I thought we'd be down today and indeed that's how the Dow got started. Then it took off. I thought I'd blown it badly. Then it wandered around. Then it ended by giving back all its gains to finish up just 7.65 points. But the Nasdaq and SPX were down. No rhyme, no reason, it's like living on a lavalite world.
The technicals
Short form again tonight. All of the factors that were in play last night are still in play. It looked like we were going lower today but instead we went up. And then down. It may simply be a case of being a day early. I tend to do that. Or the lavalite blobs may simply be roving about at random.
In any case, tonight the technicals, oversold as they are don't matter a whole lot because everything will hinge on what the Fed has to say after their meeting on Wednesday. For what it's worth, the market index futures are busy pricing in good news right now, with ES up nearly half a percent at 1 AM EDT. But the charts all look overbought.
So where are we going Wednesday? I haven't the faintest idea. Tonight is a good night to get some sleep and watch the entertainment tomorrow. It's one of those days that are just too tough to call.
Trades
I sold my Intel trade today for a nice 2.21 point profit. I think I've caught most of the latest move. I'm still holding onto my Ford though. It's up almost half a point since I bought it at 10, so I can afford to let it run some more. I'm still trading very little, what with the VIX stubbornly refusing to come down out of the stratosphere.
ES Fantasy Trader
We covered our short this morning at 1191.25 for a small loss. The account is now $118,875 since inception on 8/18 after 16 trades, 10 wins, 6 losses. Tonight we are standing aside due to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's current meeting.
SLD 10 ES false DEC11 Futures 1191.25 USD GLOBEX SEP 19 02:15:34
BOT 10 ES false DEC11 Futures 1188.50 USD GLOBEX SEP 19 11:38:45
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