Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher, high confidence
• ES pivot 1167.83.  Current price is comfortably above that.
• Rest of week bias uncertain, oversold rally is overdue..
• Monthly outlook: bias down, on politics.
• ES Fantasy Trader stuck long..

Recap

After watching Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and then Germany all take turns tanking the market, last Thursday I wrote "how many countries are there in Europe?  I don't think we're going to see an end to this until they're all had a whack at the stock market."  It was mostly in jest, but wouldn't you know it, the next day we got news that Hungarian bonds had bombed and that there was trouble in Belgium.  Belgium?  A country barely larger than Maryland, the 8th smallest state, that I'll bet most people have trouble finding on the map?

OK, well anyway, that's two more down.  Who's next?  Monaco?  Andorra?  The Dutchy of Grand Fenwick?  In any event, Friday was indeed down as I called it, though with such light trading it's hard to draw any conclusions.

The technicals

Tonight though is quite a different story.  There are really only two things that matter here, the Dow and the futures, so let's get right to them.

The Dow: One good thing about Friday's action was the print it left on the chart - a nice inverted hammer with some support just below it at 11,206.  And in extending the Dow's losing streak to 9 (yes, I know there's one day on the 18th when we had a tiny gain), it makes a bounce even more overdue.  I've written about streaks in the past, and 9 is getting up there.

Good news, everyone!

Market index futures: Here's the key.  Right now, at 1 AM EST, all three futures are solidly in the green with ES gapping up to the tune of just over not one but two percent.  Once again it's news and rumors - I'm going to call them numors out of Europe.  Only this time it's good news for a change.

In fact this gain is already large enough to propel us right out the edge of the descending RTC we've been stuck in since November 15th.  That in itself is a bullish setup.

Obviously that can all change at the drop of a hat, but we very seldom see the futures up this much at this hour without having a good day follow.  Mr. Market, like Mikey, likes it. This is worth paying attention to.

ES daily pivot: The pivot has fallen to 1167.83 and ES has finally moved above it at 1177.25.  This is a comfortable edge going into Monday's session.

History: According to The Stock Traders Almanac,the Monday after Thanksgiving is historically positive, as is the entire week for that matter.

     And the winner is...

No need to add 'em up tonight.  It looks reasonably certain to me that we're going higher Monday.  Whether this is the start of an uptrend or just a one-shot remains to be seen, but hey, I'll take it.