Thursday, December 8, 2011

No call for Thursday pending EU news

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday uncertain, awaiting EU news
  • ES pivot 1258.67.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain, awaiting EU news..
  • Monthly outlook: bias up, on politics and technicals.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside pending, yes, EU news.

 Pearl Harbor Day

Tonight, we salute the memory of those who served and who paid the supreme sacrifice protecting our nation and our freedom 70 years ago.  We also use the opportunity to recognize and honor those serving our country today.  My hat is off to you.  Thank you all.


I went moderately far out on the limb last night in calling the market higher today.  And unlike yesterday, today I got it right, with the Dow handing us a little 46 point bump.  Right now the market is clearly in a holding pattern awaiting the results of the upcoming meetings in Europe Thursday and Friday.  Accordingly there is absolutely no point in even reviewing the technicals.  Which way the market moves for the rest of this week will depend 100% on what news comes out of Europe.

The technicals

The Dow: OK, I can't help myself.  I will make a few comments about the Dow.  Today's little gain actually was significant in one respect - it marks the first time we've closed above the 12,165 resistance line since it was established a month ago.  That number now becomes support.  And remember that there are two more levels close by: the 12K psychological support and the 200 day MA at 11,945.

Also of note was today's high of 12,258, which marks the first scouting party on the 12,255 resistance level from October's high.  If the news from Europe is good, then this one should fall without too much trouble.  Then there's no resistance until 12,400, then 12,745, and finally the high of the year at 12,846.

If the news from Europe is bad, then we still have three good support levels close at hand.

We won't review anything else tonight.  While I'm a firm believer in consistency, I also recognize exercises in futility when I see them.  The futures are all flat and there's really nothing to go on right now.

     And the winner is...

No one.  Honestly, if you're got a bus being driven by an enraged chimpanzee, would you rather be on it, in front of it, or behind it.  Personally, I'd rather be the King of Siam.  If I had to make a guess, I'd say that the news from Europe is not going to be a total disaster, but that's pure speculation at this point. 

So tonight is one of those rare occasions where I do not make a call because there's no way to do so in a meaningful way.  We're just going to pull up a chair, relax, maybe do some Christmas decorating, and wait for the fireworks.

ES Fantasy Trader

Today we managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory on last night's long trade with a 9 point loss. Portfolio stats: the account is now $156,875 after 40trades (28 wins, 12 losses) since inception on 8/18 with $100K. Reminder: the portfolio will reset to $100K cash on January 1st, to make year-over-year comparisons easier. Tonight we are standing aside.

BOT 10 ES false DEC11 Futures 1261.75 USD GLOBEX DEC 7 01:25:01
SLD 10 ES false DEC11 Futures 1252.75 USD GLOBEX DEC 7 12:14:36


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