Thursday looking a bit lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain, weak bias lower..
• ES pivot 1285.67.  Holding over is bullish..
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias up.
• ES Fantasy Trader holding short at 1282.75.

Recap

Last night my best guess was that we'd see another doji day today.  We did have some fairly uninspired action, though not a doji.  It was one of those down right out of the gate, then slowly meander back up kind of days.

The technicals

The Dow: While we did end just 13 Dow points down from where we began, it was on a very clear hanging man candle and that is a good bearish reversal pattern.

Market index futures: Like last night, all three futures are down, but tonight it's just barely.  Nonetheless, the overnight's failure to advance so far (at coupled with today's clear hanging man mirroring that of the Dow is a sign to me anyway that this market is running out of steam.  It seems to me that we're overdue for at least a small retrenchment anyway.

ES daily pivot: Rose slightly to 1285.67 tonight.  Even at that, ES is still holding just over that level at 1287.00.  Remaining here is bullish on the face of it.

Morningstar Market Fair Value Index: The index continues to rise, hitting 0.90 yesterday, definitely a positive sign.

History: According to The Stock Traders Almanac, there is no historical edge to Thursday.

     And the winner is...

Well we're still getting a bit of a mixture of messages tonight but the balance seems to be tipping in favor of the bears.  I think we're about due for at least one down day and Thursday may be it.  Probably not a big loss but I'm more bearish than bullish on Thursday right now.

ES Fantasy Trader

Tonight we're hanging on to our underwater short.  Portfolio stats: the account remains $103,375 after 3 trades (2 wins, 1 loss)