Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Tuesday higher, high confidence..
- ES pivot 1285.58. Holding over is bullish..
- Rest of week bias uncertain pending Tuesday's action.
- Monthly outlook: bias up.
- ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
No trading today so nothign to recap. Nonetheless, I find the action in the futures interesting. Read on.
The technicals
The Dow: With no trading today, I will simply reiterate what I said last night: with now three hanging men in a row, and the last being the largest of the three, I'd say the Dow is trying to tell us something here. This is not a good sign.
Market index futures: Oddly enough, while the Dow chart is looking ready to roll over, the futures are looking quite strong indeed tonight. Unlike last night, all three are solidly in the green. ES is up three quarters of a percent at 1:25 AM EST and NQ is up nearly a full percent. This is quite unusual for this time of night and the last time we saw such numbers, the following day was up strongly.
With ES now at 1299, we've finally broken above the 1290-1295 resistance level that plagued us last week. From here, there's just psychological resistance at 1300, then the upper BB at 1313.
ES daily pivot: Dropped from 1290.00 to 1285.58. But even before that, ES crossed over around 11 PM and never looked back, another good sign..
History: According to The Stock Traders Almanac, historically, the Dow is up 14 of the last 19 on the first day of options expiration week in January.
And the winner is...
I'm going to completely reverse my opinion from last night and now claim that Tuesday is going higher. Apparently, today the S&P ratings downgrades didn't bother the Europeans, so I guess the theory is that it isn't going to bother us. It's always a challenge to call the direction of the market after three days off, but this one is looking pretty good.
ES Fantasy Trader
It's not even 2 AM yet but we've already had quite a run up in ES. I'm getting the feeling that the overnight window of opportunity has already closed so we're standing aside again tonight.
Portfolio stats: the account remains at $97,375 after 4 trades (2 wins, 2 losses)
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