Friday, December 21, 2012

Friday lower


The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday lower, medium confidence.
  • ES pivot 1441.17Holding below is bearish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Arrgh - are we back to this again?  Two days ago I said the market would go up, so it went down.  Last night I said it would go down, so naturally it went up.  Well at least I won't have to worry about this much longer, according to the TV weather report this evening.  And I should add that with Monday being a short session due to Christmas falling on Tuesday, I will be taking that day off, so this will be the last post until next Tuesday night (assuming the world is still around then).

Actually, speaking of laughs, I originally added this weather graphic as a joke.  But that was before I checked this evening's charts.  In one minute, at 8:18 PM ES went from 1429.25 to 1393.  Fasten your seatbelts folks, it's going to be a bumpy ride!

ES, five minute
Anyway, tonight in view of the imminent end of the world, we forgo the usual chart by chart run-down since that's all going to be pretty meaningless come Friday morning.  The only chart you need tonight is ES, right here.  I guess this must be the fiscal cliff everyone's been talking about.  ES was actually above its pivot and wandering about 1445 earlier in the evening.  Then Boehner dropped his Plan B bomb and it was look out below!  When the dust settled ES was around 1423 where it has remained in the late night hours as I write this.

Add options expirations into the mix and it's going to be an interesting session.  It's looking like stocks will follow the futures lower on Friday, so that's the call in a nutshell: Friday lower.

And the really perplexing part about all of this is that Thursday night's vote, or lack of one was totally meaningless anyway, since the Senate isn't going to pass anything the Republicans vote on and Emperor Nerobama would veto it even if they did.  And if by some miracle  Mr. Boehbama announces an agreement after all on Friday, watch for stocks to rebound.  We're living the Franz Kafka dream my friends.  What we really need is Plan C: load everyone in Washington into buses and drive them over the fiscal cliff.  As for me, I'll be adding some extra rum to my eggnog and enjoying a crackling fire in the fireplace tomorrow.  Ho ho ho!

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

April      7      9      2                    .438
May       10      7      3           2        .632
June       8      6      6           1        .600     632
July      11      2      6           1        .857     917
August     8      6      8           1        .600     -78
September  8      6      5           0        .571     -19 

October    8      5      8           0        .615     208
November   7      5      5           0        .583     135
December   5      3      1           5        .769     377

ES Fantasy Trader

Patience paid off on this trade, with a little bit of help from the US Congress proving once again that it's better to be lucky than good.  The net result was a losing trade that turned into a 9.5 point winner.

Portfolio stats:  the account now rises to $193,500  after 74 trades (58 wins, 16 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  Tonight we stand aside being that we just exited a trade.  I think the majority of the money to be made on this one has been captured and there's no point staying in this type of nutzoid market any longer than necessary and risking giving up our profits.

BOT    10    false    ES    DEC12 Futures     1423.00    USD    GLOBEX    00:40:50   
SLD    10    false    ES    DEC12 Futures     1432.50    USD    GLOBEX    DEC 20 01:45:28 


  1. An excellent year Michele. Congratulations!
    Have a safe and happy christmas - the grinch won't be knocking on your door. LOL
    I expect it to be another turbulent year next year - filled with opportunities that will reward those who are alert enough to spot them. You certainly established a very enviable track record this past year with it's dramatic swings. Enjoy the fruits of your labor. Buy yourself something special - a trip to Paris - or socks that glow in the dark!!!

    1. Thanks very much for all the kind words, SB, and thanks for being a loyal reader. A very merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you too.


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