SPECIAL END OF THE WORLD EDITION
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Friday lower, medium confidence.
- ES pivot 1441.17. Holding below is bearish.
- Next week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias lower.
- ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Arrgh - are we back to this again? Two days ago I said the market would go up, so it went down. Last night I said it would go down, so naturally it went up. Well at least I won't have to worry about this much longer, according to the TV weather report this evening. And I should add that with Monday being a short session due to Christmas falling on Tuesday, I will be taking that day off, so this will be the last post until next Tuesday night (assuming the world is still around then).
Actually, speaking of laughs, I originally added this weather graphic as a joke. But that was before I checked this evening's charts. In one minute, at 8:18 PM ES went from 1429.25 to 1393. Fasten your seatbelts folks, it's going to be a bumpy ride!
|ES, five minute|
Add options expirations into the mix and it's going to be an interesting session. It's looking like stocks will follow the futures lower on Friday, so that's the call in a nutshell: Friday lower.
And the really perplexing part about all of this is that Thursday night's vote, or lack of one was totally meaningless anyway, since the Senate isn't going to pass anything the Republicans vote on and Emperor Nerobama would veto it even if they did. And if by some miracle Mr. Boehbama announces an agreement after all on Friday, watch for stocks to rebound. We're living the Franz Kafka dream my friends. What we really need is Plan C: load everyone in Washington into buses and drive them over the fiscal cliff. As for me, I'll be adding some extra rum to my eggnog and enjoying a crackling fire in the fireplace tomorrow. Ho ho ho!
Accuracy (daily calls):
October 8 5 8 0 .615 208
November 7 5 5 0 .583 135
December 5 3 1 5 .769 377
ES Fantasy Trader
Patience paid off on this trade, with a little bit of help from the US Congress proving once again that it's better to be lucky than good. The net result was a losing trade that turned into a 9.5 point winner.
Portfolio stats: the account now rises to $193,500 after 74 trades (58 wins, 16 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12. Tonight we stand aside being that we just exited a trade. I think the majority of the money to be made on this one has been captured and there's no point staying in this type of nutzoid market any longer than necessary and risking giving up our profits.
BOT 10 false ES DEC12 Futures 1423.00 USD GLOBEX 00:40:50
SLD 10 false ES DEC12 Futures 1432.50 USD GLOBEX DEC 20 01:45:28