Monday, December 31, 2012

Monday uncertain, bias higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday uncertain, bias higher.
  • ES pivot 1394.33Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias uncertain.
  • ES Fantasy Trader closed.

Fiscal cliff diving
The only thing that surprised me about last Friday's action was the extent of the losses as the Dow shed another 158 points to extend the losing streak to five in a row.  I figured we'd see more drifting lower, but this was definitely more than a drift as the market continues to price in going over the fiscal cliff.  And with no deal announced on Sunday, as I predicted a while ago we're going right up to the very edge.  Monday is now do or die.  Reach a deal, even if it's only to kick the can down the road (my personal guess) and we go higher.  No deal and we go lower, simple as that.

And in this continuing political soap opera, that's all you need to know about Monday.  There's just no way to meaningfully trade that type of market.  The technicals (although they're now looking primed for a bounce) are totally irrelevant at this point.  So once again, we skip the chart-by-chart analysis as a pointless exercise in futility.  Once we get past all this nonsense, maybe we can get back to work.  In the meantime, Happy New Year!  I'm done trading, the ES Fantasy Trader is closed, and we'll be popping the champagne corks Monday night.  Cheers!

Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

April      7      9      2                    .438
May       10      7      3           2        .632
June       8      6      6           1        .600     632
July      11      2      6           1        .857     917
August     8      6      8           1        .600     -78
September  8      6      5           0        .571     -19 

October    8      5      8           0        .615     208
November   7      5      5           0        .583     135
December   6      3      4           5        .786     496

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account ends the year at $193,500  after 74 trades (58 wins, 16 losses) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/12.  We'll start over again with $100,000 on the first of the new year.

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