Thursday uncertain, doji possible

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain, doji possible.
• ES pivot 1485.33.  Breaking below is bearish...
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader going short at 1486.50.

Recap

Doh!  Well that's what I get for trying to call the top.  The market was obviously having none of it, as the Dow posted yet another gain, making it 9 for 10 now.  I should have known better.  I'm about ready to sign up for TFA - that's Tape Fighters Anonymous.  At least I'm always net long, so I'm still making money.  And since that's why we're all here, let's see where the money might be headed on Thursday.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Gosh, I should just cut & paste last night's comments here.  Same green candles, same rising RTC, same off the scale overbought indicators, still no sign of a reversal, etc.  I do find it curious that volume declined once again on Wednesday.  But that alone isn't enough to call a top, so we continue waiting.  I still think we're going to touch 14K and then head lower.  That's just over 200 points from here now.  The amazing thing here is that the Dow just executed a bullish stochastic crossover on the monthly chart. 

The VIX:  After yesterday's matching low lines, we did in fact get a gain in the VIX today, slight as it might be at just 0.24%.  And you wouldn't even know it just looking at yet another red candle.  But so far, that support around 12.48 seems to be hanging in there.  The trend is still down though and today's move hardly inspires much confidence in a VIX rally, so I'm going to have to wait til I see a real green candle on an RTC exit before calling the VIX higher.  Fool me once, etc.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 1:27 AM EST with ES down by 0.34%.  Wednesday's candle was a clear doji.  But the overngiht is busy forming yet another green candle.  We're now right on the edge of the rising RTC and the indicators look like they may finally be topping.  But we've seen this movie before.  This is the zombie chart that refuses to die.  I'll believe it's lower when I see it.  And right now I'm still not seeing any really good bearish signs yet.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises again from 1485;33  to 1488.67.  After threading about the old number this evening following a drop at the close on Wednesday, we're now three points under the new pivot thanks mostly to its higher level.  But that's still a bearish sign.

Dollar index:The dollar continued its Brownian motion today gaining just 0.02% on a green candle sitting largely below Tuesday's.  The indicators are now trending higher off oversold though and we remain in a rising RTC, so I can at least guess that there's more upside ahead for ye olde greenback on Thursday.

Euro: The euro on the other hand is plagued by indecision, putting in a second doji in a row on Wednesday.  And the overnight continues basically flat, trading around 1.3323.  Without any signs of trends, I guess all we can say is to expect more sideways motion until this chart makes up its mind which way it wants to go.

Transportation:The trans just keep on rocketing up into the stratosphere.  The indicators are all pegged at overbought (RSI hit 100 today) but nothing seems to matter.  We just keep on trucking higher.  Never seen anything like it.  The only indication of an end to this is that today's candle was a star.  It's still inside the rising RTC so we'll need confirmation on Thursday if this is a top or not.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    4      5      5           1       0.500     -93

     And the winner is...

A very mixed picture tonight.  I keep thinking that like Kansas City, we've gone about as far as we can go, and I keep getting proven wrong.  The trans are screaming hot and Dr. Copper looks like he's gearing up for a move higher.  I'm not seeing any really bearish signs but I'm also not seeing much incentive to keep moving higher.  And with a short-term rally that's getting long in the tooth and some employment numbers coming out, I think I'm just going to take a pass and call Thursday uncertain.  If I had to guess, I'd call it a doji.

ES Fantasy Trader


Bracck brack brack.  That's the sound of the Night Owl imitating a chicken, which is what I got while watching my short profits melt away this evening like a snow man in May.  After my last stinging loss, I didn't want that to happen again, so I got out while I was still in the black, taking my meager half a point and being glad I got that much.

Portfolio stats: the account inches up to $93,625 after 3 trades (2 for 3 total, zero for zero longs, 2 for 3 short).

BOT    10    false    ES    MAR13 Futures     1486.00    USD    GLOBEX    21:25:18
SLD    10    false    ES    MAR13 Futures     1486.50    USD    GLOBEX    00:50:46