Thursday, January 10, 2013

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1455.50.  HOlding above is bullish..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Oops.  I was really thinking we'd go lower today.  Instead the Dow surprised me by gaining 62 points.  So we are right back to the 13,390 level that's been either the open or the close for the last six straight sessions.  There's probably some day trading money to be made here, but for a swing trader we're just spinning our wheels.  Let's call AAA and see if we can get towed out of these doldrums on Thursday.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: After a short descending RTC, today the DOw closed outside it for a bullish setup and an approximation of a bullish engulfing pattern.  With the indicators now completely broken at overbought, this chart's not looking anywhere near as bad as it did last night.

The VIXAfter setting a multi-year low on Tuesday, the VIX moved even lower today, hitting 13.22 intraday before recovering to close at 13.81 for a 1.40% gain, so at least I guessed this one right.  With RSI in the basement at 2.04 and the stochastic joining it, I'd have to  think we're more likely to move higher from here than lower.

Market index futures:Tonight all three futures are higher at 1:00 AM EST with ES up by 0.22%.  ES is now, like the Dow, in a channel between 1451 and 1460.  After opening at the bottom of that range on Wednesday, the overnight has brought us to the top.  We'll break out eventually, but right now I'm not even going to venture a guess which way that will be.  The recent past suggests a move lower though.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot inches up from 1451.08  to 1455.50.  With a mini-rally around 9 PM we remain above the new pivot so that's bullish.

Dollar index:The dollar has been bouncing around lately with no particular pattern.  I'm happy to admit I have absolutely no clue where it may be headed next. .Maybe the euro has a clue.

Euro: Nope.  After expecting once again to see the euro move higher, it moved lower on Wednesday.  But it continues to find support right around 1.3050.  The candles look bearish, the indicators look bullish, and I'm stumped.

Transportation:After looking like they'd put in a top, today the trans handily erased two days of losses and closed above 5530 resistance.  Broken indicators here too and yesterday's hanging man is now looking more like a hammer, so this chart's no longer particularly bearish.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    2      2      1           1       0.600     0

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are being particularly coy.  I'm afraid I don't have a particularly good feel for the whole environment here so I think the most prudent course of action is to simply sit back and wait for the break.  Until then, I think we'll see some more of this nervous channeling action and because of that, all I can say is that Thursday is uncertain.  Sorry folks, wish I had something more profound to say, but sometimes that's just how it is.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  tonight the account remains at $103,750 after one trade (1 for 1 total, zero for zero longs, 1 for 1 short).  Tonight we stand aside again in the face of a lack of good guidance.

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