Thursday, March 14, 2013

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1547.83.  No guidance.  Now using  M contract..
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Yawn - another snoozer of a day on Wall St. Wednesday.  I guess my call of "uncertain" was about right, with just tiny moves in all three major averages.  I'm trying to think of something new to say but I'm afraid it's just deja vu all over again.  There is literally almost nothing changed between last night and tonight.  But I'll make a few comments anyway for your reading amusement.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: The Dow put in a carbon copy doji on Wednesday but remains in the rising RTC, overbought indicators, you know the drill.  These two dojis might be a sign that the Dow's streak is starting to run out of gas, or they may not.  In the face of so much momentum, we need confirmation before calling a top here.

The VIXWhile the VIX dropped 3.59% on Wednesday, that still keeps in inside a consolidation area centered about 12.  All today did was nudge us closer to the edge of the descending RTC for a potential bullish setup - but not yet.

Market index futures: Tonight the futures are mixed at 1:29 AM EDT with ES down by 0.05%, YM down 0.04% but NQ up 0.02%.  Another overnight of little movement and even less guidance..  We got a second hanging man on Wednesday but it remains inside a long-running rising RTC.  But we are finally on the edge.  Any move lower on Thursday would signal a bearish setup and a possible sign that this uptrend is over.  Indeed ES has been unable to make any headway above 1551 for there days now.  But there still isnt' much direction on the daily chart.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot inches up from 1546.67  to 1547.83.  We were above before and remain higher, so that's bullish, although not by much.  Still ES doesn't seem too interested in testing the pivot right now.  Reminder - we're on the M contract now.

Dollar index: On Wednesday the dollar narrowly averted a rising RTC exit with a 0.37% gain.that suggests its upward trend that began way back on February 1st is not over yet.

Euro: And the euro fell out of its recent range, dropping below 1.3000 for the first time since last December 10th.  Last week's bullish RTC exit has apparently come to naught, and with continuing lower in the overnight, a lower close Thursday is a definite possibility.

Transportation: Perhaps the most (heck the only) interesting chart of the day, the trans resumed their march higher on Wednesday, gaining an outsized 1.63% that belied the Dow's flat-lining.  This popped the trans out of their recent consolidation range, stopping only at the upper BB of 6237.  But there's nothing here to suggest anything but further upside in the cards.

Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      4      3      2           0        0.571    212

     And the winner is...

So there you have it - same old same old.  And just like last night, there's not much meat to chew on here so I'm just going to have to declare Thursday uncertain.  Seems like everyone's waiting for the big pullback now.  I suppose that with the Dow's winning streak now at nine, it's got to come sooner or later, but I'm just not seeing it quite yet.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $92,625 after 8 trades (6 for 8 total, 3 for 3 longs, 3 for 5 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside in the absence of any apparent good overnight trend..

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