Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Tuesday no call.
- ES pivot 1665.00. Holding above is bullish.
- Rest of week bias higher technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
One of my rules is to never commit TWI - that's Trading WHile Ill, and the Night Owl had a wisdom tooth extracted today and is not feeling very good at all tonight. So here's as far as I got. Hopefeully, we'll be feeling better tomorrow.
Well Monday was looking pretty good for my call for a higher close until some other Fed guy (this time from Chicago I think) opened his mouth. And just like last week when that SF guy felt the need to publicize his existence, down we went. The damage was limited to a 19 point dip in the Dow but it still counts as a miss. Nevertheless, the ESFT managed to pull out a win. So onward to Tuesday.
The technicals (daily)
The VIX: The VIX took a big jump, relatively speaking on Monday, up 4.58% to go from below its recent trading range to just above. This had the effect of starting to look like a bearish megaphone pattern as we alternate between lower lows and higher highs. This alone makes me think that the VIX is likely to fall in the next day or two.
Market index futures:
ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot inches up from 1659.00 to 1665.00.
Dollar index: .
Accuracy (daily calls):
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
January 5 7 6 3 0.533 -101
February 3 4 5 6 0.692 131
March 5 7 5 2 0.500 121
April 7 5 5 3 0.667 328
May 1 4 5 4 0.556 -30
And the winner is...
ES Fantasy Trader
Well I guess it paid to have the courage of mty convictions last night as our long play netted a nice 5 1/4 points, and we left very little lying on the table befre ES headed back down.
Portfolio stats: the account now rises to $110,375 after 12 trades (10 for 12 total, 5 for 5 longs, 5 for 7 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13. Tonight we
SLD 10 false ES JUN13 Futures 1668.75 USD GLOBEX 11:41:47
BOT 10 false ES JUN13 Futures 1,663.500 USD GLOBEX 01:35:01