Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Tuesday - no call

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday no call.
  • ES pivot 1665.00.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias higher technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

One of my rules is to never commit TWI - that's Trading WHile Ill, and the Night Owl had a wisdom tooth extracted today and is not feeling very good at all tonight.  So here's as far as I got.  Hopefeully, we'll be feeling better tomorrow.


Well Monday was looking pretty good for my call for a higher close until some other Fed guy (this time from Chicago I think) opened his mouth.  And just like last week when that SF guy felt the need to publicize his existence, down we went.  The damage was limited to a 19 point dip in the Dow but it still counts as a miss.  Nevertheless, the ESFT managed to pull out a win.  So onward to Tuesday.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow:

The VIXThe VIX took a big jump, relatively speaking on Monday, up 4.58% to go from below its recent trading range to just above.  This had the effect of starting to look like a bearish megaphone pattern as we alternate between lower lows and higher highs.  This alone makes me think that the VIX is likely to fall in the next day or two.

Market index futures: 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot inches up from 1659.00  to 1665.00.

Dollar index: .



Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121 

April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328

May        1      4      5           4        0.556    -30

     And the winner is...

no call

ES Fantasy Trader

Well I guess it paid to have the courage of mty convictions last night as our long play netted a nice 5 1/4 points, and we left very little lying on the table befre ES headed back down.

Portfolio stats: the account now rises to $110,375 after 12 trades (10 for 12 total, 5 for 5 longs, 5 for 7 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we

SLD    10    false    ES    JUN13 Futures     1668.75    USD    GLOBEX    11:41:47   
BOT    10    false    ES    JUN13 Futures     1,663.500    USD    GLOBEX    01:35:01


  1. Replies
    1. Thanks for your kind thoughts. At least I don't feel sick today, more just really tired.

  2. A hot bubble bath with an expensive oil. Bach's air on the g string or Brandenburg Concertos. Candles. Whiskey with hot tea. A wisdom tooth extraction foot rub. Maybe some pasta. I'll be right over, baby! Okay, I'll behave. Get well soon, my friend!

    1. Ahh - it was relaxing just reading that list :-) I made do though with a triple gin & tonic and three extra hours of sleep this morning. Thanks for the well-wishes.


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