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- Tuesday higher, low confidence.
- ES pivot 1632.00 . Holding above is bullish.
- Rest of week bias higher technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Last night I noted that recently "big one day drops have been followed by something like a 50% retracement." And that's just what we saw on Monday with the Dow regaining just a bit more than half of Friday's losses in a 138 point rebound. So now let's move on to Tuesday.
The technicals (daily)
The Dow: Monday's retracement caused the indicators to begin rising from oversold and also set up the stochastic for a bullish crossover. The Dow also regained its pivot in the closing hour so I am cautiously optimistic about this chart for Tuesday.
The VIX: On Monday the VIX gave us a big bearish inverted hammer, very nearly a gravestone doji with a close above the upper BB. That marks the second day in a row for a close there which means we're about due to see the VIX fall. The VIX's last three excursions above the 200 MA have been fairly brief and I expect this time to follow suit.
Market index futures: Tonight the futures are mixed at 1:33 AM EDT with both ES and YM down by 0.03% but NQ up 0.03%. ES gave us a bullish hammer on Monday. Combined with oversold indicators and no negative follow-through in the overnight so far means we have a shot at moving higher on Tuesday.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot drops from 1637.75 to 1632.00 even. This move, plus the slow upward drift of ES since 6 PM has put it back above the new pivot, so this now becomes a bullish sign.
Dollar index: On Monday the dollar gave us a classic hammer that along with oversold indicators and a new bullish stochastic crossover makes me think that we could see more upside on Tuesday..
Euro: As fast as the euro fell through its 200 day MA on Friday, it zoomed right back above on Monday, closing at 1.3073, its highest level since May 9th. This move drove the indicators overbought and left the stochastic right on the cusp of a bearish crossover. With a 0.11% decline in the overnight, I wouldn't be surprised to see the euro move lower on Tuesday. That also syncs with my higher dollar theory.
Transportation: On Monday the trans formed a perfect doji that tested the lower BB before bouncing. It also left the indicators quite oversold and just managed to squeak out a bullish stochastic crossover. While we remain in a descending RTC here, there is at least some suggestion of a reversal on Tuesday.
Accuracy (daily calls):
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
average points
January 5 7 6 3 0.533 -101
February 3 4 5 6 0.692 131
March 5 7 5 2 0.500 121
April 7 5 5 3 0.667 328
May 3 4 6 4 0.636 85
June 1 0 0 0 1.000 138
And the winner is...
We've been seeing a lot of choppy action in the past week so this is a tricky one. The safe move would be to simply call Tuesday uncertain, but I'm seeing enough bullish signs in the charts tonight to warrant a call instead of Tuesday higher. And that's my final answer.
ES Fantasy Trader
Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,375 after 12 trades (10 for 12 total, 5 for 5 longs, 5 for 7 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13. Tonight we stand aside in view of all the choppiness. I'd rather watch this from the sidelines than get my head chopped off.
Posts
Business class on Southwest Airlines,... they probably thought you lived in a cave. I'm sorry you didn't get any LUV from SWA. I would short 'em just because they jerked you around, but the dang chart looks like it's consolidating at a high to me. I suppose the BS Ticket (Business Select, not the other BS) offer a number of perks such as extra miles, a drink, seating priority, etc. but that it doesn't cover the point spread on a airfare more than twice as much as WTG. They figure you're either on an account and don't care, loaded or frivolous with money and don't care, or worse of all - unaware. Either way, they're going to take you. Good luck with VISA. That'll teach ya, now get back to work!
ReplyDeleteLUV, JAT
Yeah, they got me good. But the story ain't over yet. I'm retired and have nothing better to do. If Visa won't get my money back for me (actually, the difference between the Coach class fare and my vaporware Business class ticket) then it's on to the FTC, the NY Attorney General, and maybe my good friend Chuck.
DeleteI came back here to post you a helpful link on how to improve your tactics on the Southwest Airlines chess board.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rossmiller.org/which-seat-a-southwest-airlines-a-lister%E2%80%99s-guide-to-one-upping-the-business-select-class
LUV, JAT
Interesting article. But I have a better solution: I have now added Southwest to my short but growing list of boycotted airlines. (The no. 1 spot, now occupied many years is United. No. 2 is US Air, but I guess that problem is finally going away).
DeleteOh, and I was wondering why I was the only person standing in the A1-A15 boarding area. Craziest seating policy I've ever seen, and I've been flying since they were operating Boeing 377's to Europe.