Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Wednesday - no call

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday - no call.
  • ES pivot 1608.67.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing saide..

Tuesday's action was pretty typical of the perils one encounters trying to call pre-holiday sessions.  We were up early and things were looking pretty good for my call for a higher close.  Then CNBC started putting up non-stop video of a big bunch of yahoos jumping around in the town square of Cairo waving their stupid laser pointers in the air and that was all it took to send Mr. Market sprinting for the exit screaming like a school girl.  Hey, didn't we just see this movie a couple of years ago?  Check this out:

News story, Financial Times, Feb. 11, 2011:

"Defiant Mubarak refuses to resign"

And then all of one day later,

 News story, BBC News, February 12, 2011:

"Egypt crisis: President Hosni Mubarak resigns as leader"

Now today we've got

News story,, July 2, 2013

"Egypt’s Morsi rebuffs calls to step down"

Oh my!  How will it turn out this time?  The suspense is just killing me (not).

Ho hum.  What Mr. Market fails to realize is that Egypt is not the US.  Here we elect a leader every four years.  If the losers don't like him (or her), it's just tough beans until next time.  Egypt has no such democratic tradition.  Over there, elections are basically just political theatre.  If the winner turns out to be, uh, unsuitable in some fashion, then everybody heads for the streets to party like it's 1999 until the poor guy throws in the towel and then the army takes over.  Until the next "election".  Lather, rinse, repeat.  Etc., etc.

On Feb. 11, 2011, the Dow closed at  12,273.  A week later it was at 12,391.  A month later, 12,264.  So please, give me a break.  Of all the things to worry about in the world today, Egypt is not one of them.  Now pass the popcorn while I wait for Act II of As the Nile Turns...

The technicals (daily)

All that stuff is canceled for tonight.  With Wednesday being only a rump session and all the big players already heading for the airport to helicopter out to the Hamptons, there's absolutely no point in trying to predict which way the market will close on Wednesday.  So we won't.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85

June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543

July       0      1      0           1        0.500    -43

     And the winner is...

Me.  I plan to spend Wednesday relaxing out on the patio sipping a gin & tonic and reading a good book.  A cursory glance at the charts suggests we may be getting a bit overbought here and could be looking at lower prices in a bit, but I'm not touching this action with a 10 foot swizzle stick.  Happy Fourth to one and all and see you back here Thursday night.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $115,000 even after 14 trades (11 for 14 total, 6 for 6 longs, 5 for 8 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside in the face of the Egyptian shenanigans and another low-volume pre-holiday session...

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