Friday, August 30, 2013

Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher, medium confidence.
  • ES pivot 1636.42.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias higher technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Interesting trace of ES last night.  Around 2 AM it decided to move above the pivot.  Then it made an attempt to dive under just before the open but that was quickly rebuffed and then we did indeed close higher, confirming my conditional call.  Now on to Friday, potentially perplexing because we're ending the week and the month, and next week is holiday-shortened.  But the chartsd will see us through as always.

Note: this stupid Blogspot spell checker is on strike again tonight so I apologize in advance for any typos I missed.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: After a impressive start, the Dow kind of gave up some gains to finish with almost an inverted hammer.  It was enough to just bring us off oversold but we remain inside the descending RTC so we need to be a bit cautious here, Friday-wise.

The VIXThursday was one of those unusual days whe both the market and the VIX are up  But I wouldn't read too much into it because it was only up 1.94%.  More important, I think, is that it put in a big long-legged doji, the third doji in thre days in fact, and this one failed to touch the upper BB.  This has caused momentum to peak.  It also traded outside the rising RTC for a bearish trigger so I'd say the VIX goes lower on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 1:32 AM EDT with ES up by an impressive 0.47%.  ES now seems to have some positive momentum building after a decent up day Thursday.  The good follow-through in the overnight is forming a bullish stochastic crossover and moving the indicators higher so I'd say this one is looking bullish for Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot bumps up from 1632.08  to 1636.42.  But with ES on something of a tear in the overnight, we're now a good nine points above the new pivot, definitely a positive sign for Friday.

Dollar index: Another day, another doji.  The dollar just can't figure out where the heck it wants to go, and neither can I.  'Nuff said..

Euro: After two fairly large down days, the euro has found some supprot around 1.3240.    With oversold indicators ad the lower BB close at hand, I'd say further downside for the euro is now limited and I would expect to see a move higher either Friday or next Tuesday.

Transportation: Support around 6300 held on Thursday as the trans put in an inverted hammer for a 0.26% gain that confirmed Wednesday's doji.  Looks like more upside here on Friday.

Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85

June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      2      6           2        0.867    718

     And the winner is...

After watching the charts turn incermentally more positive for the past two nights, I'm now seeing some definite bullish signs tongiht, enough so to simply call Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  Happy Labor Day one and all.  See you again next Monday night.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $108,500 after 15 trades (11 for 15  total, 6 for 6 longs, 5 for 9 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we continue to stand aside - this time because I feel like I missed the entry with ES having already posted a good size move this evening.

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