Monday, September 16, 2013

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday higher, medium confidence.
  • ES pivot 1685.42.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Well now that was interesting, wasn't it?  It sure looked to me anyway like we were headed lower on Friday.  But instead, the Dow gained 75 points, possibly on Syrian news about No-bomba.  Whatever, I'll just chalk this up to one of those days where technical analysis simply didn't work.  But TA is like playing blackjack in Vegas.  You can play a perfect Basic System and still get wiped out unless you can take the heat and are prepared to stay in the game for the long haul.  And the Night Owl is nothing if not a long-hauler.  So perhaps we'll have better luck on Monday - let's get right to it.

The technicals (daily)

Hmm, you know what, I think we're going to skip the chart-by-chart rundown tonight for several reasons, mostly having to do with news that came out over the weekend.  With the one-two combo of the Rooskie Syrian peace deal and Larry Summers taking a powder on the Fed, the futures are up over one percent in the overnight already.  This kind of makes an analysis of Friday's charts out of date, although they were pretty much starting to look bullish again anyway.  So let's just save some time and cut straight to the chase.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85

June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  4      1      1           1        0.833    195

     And the winner is...

Mr. Market got a double dose of good news over the weekend in the form of the Putin Present and the Summers Sayonara so it looks like he's ready to do some buying on Monday.  Therefore I am simply going to call Monday higher.  That's all she wrote.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $108,500 after 15 trades (11 for 15  total, 6 for 6 longs, 5 for 9 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we're standing aside because once again, the big move happened earlier in the evening.  Oh well.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Due to some people who just won't honor my request not to post spam on my blog, I have had to re-enable comment moderation. Comments may take up to 24 hour to appear, depending on when they're made. Sorry about that.