Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday higher, low confidence.
  • ES pivot 1639.92.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias higher technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Well despite the best efforts of John Boehner and Mr. Softee to torpedo the market on Tuesday , the Dow would not be denied and still managed to close a decent 24 points higher.  Tonight I have to do a quick post because I need to get up early Wednesday morning, something I hate, to go flying (something I love).  The analysis is complete, but the write-up is short.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Consolidating, descending RTC exit = bullish setup, support holding, bullish inverted hammer, indicators just off oversold, looks fairly bullish.

The VIXConsolidating on continued indecision, five reversal candles in a row now, rising RTC done so trend is over, unfilled gap below remains, indicators close to overbought, looks like it wants to go lower.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:46 AM EDT with ES up by 0.15%.  ES star on Tuesday is a reversal warning but not confirmed in the overnight.  Gradual daily drift higher plus low indicators & no resistance til 1645 = looking bullish.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot steps up from 1633.92  to 1639.92.  Just broke above the new pivot -> bullish.

Dollar index: Big gap-up 0.32% gain Tuesday but now forming a bearish tri-star.  Overbought indicators, closed above upper BB, looking for lower on Wednesday.

Euro: Waterfall decline continues, 200 day MA just touched intraday - as I mentioned last night.  Highly oversold indicators, stochastic nearing bullish crossover, end to decline coming in a day or two.

Transportation: Inverted hammer (not perfect), oversold RSI, new bullish stochastic crossover, lower BB touched, higher likely Wednesday.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85

June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687

September  1      0      0           0        1.000     24

     And the winner is...

The positive signs I was seeing last night are still there tonight.  And even some bad news on Tuesday was unable to drive the market lower so there does seem to be some gas in the tank.  With basically bullish charts, the logical call in for Wednesday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $108,500 after 15 trades (11 for 15  total, 6 for 6 longs, 5 for 9 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we continue to stand aside - this time because again I feel like I missed the entry with ES having already posted a good size move this evening.

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