Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Tuesday uncertain but bias lower.
- ES pivot 1757.58. Holding below is bearish.
- Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- ES Fantasy Trader standing aside
Ho hum - another Day of Nothing. I figured the Dow could move at least a bit higher on Monday, and we were indeed up early on until some afternoon selling brought us right back to where we started. So that call was wrong - by all of one point. And the SPX actually was up a little. So let's move on to Tuesday. Unfortunately, we're going to have to make it fast as the Night Owl has to do something I absolutely detest - get up early Tuesday morning. Ugh.
The technicals (daily)
The Dow: Monday's doji probably reflects indecision ahead of the Fed so doesn't necessarily imply a top. Upper BB continues to climb away.
The VIX: Remains stuck in a nervous range with a small gain Monday - not much of a pattern here. But with VVIX at support, the next move in the VIX may be higher.
Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 12:27 AM EDT with ES down by 0.13%. Three white soldiers look bullish, rising RTC intact but declining indicators suggest a possible pause on Tuesday.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot inches up from 1750.83 to 1757.58. That leaves us below the new pivot, so now turns bearish.
Dollar index: Short term RTC exit for bullish setup but intermediate term downtrend intact..
Euro: After fourth doji in a row, definitely feeling toppy. Overnight down 0.22% confirming that.
Transportation: Modest gains on Monday keep us in a rising RTC. Friday's hanging man not confirmed - still too soon to call a top.
Accuracy (daily calls):
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
January 5 7 6 3 0.533 -101
February 3 4 5 6 0.692 131
March 5 7 5 2 0.500 121
April 7 5 5 3 0.667 328
May 3 4 6 4 0.636 85
June 6 5 6 0 0.545 543
July 10 2 4 4 0.875 486
August 11 3 6 2 0.813 687
September 8 3 3 3 0.800 485
October 6 5 6 2 0.615 601
And the winner is...
Some charts now looking toppy, NYSE A/D line's been putting in lower highs and lower lows lately so the bias looks negative. However, with an upcoming Fed day on Wednesday I expect a lot of sitting on hands on Tuesday similar to what we got Monday. Accordingly, I'm calling Tuesday uncertain.
ES Fantasy Trader
Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17 total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13. Tonight we stand aside.again.