Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday uncertain but bias lower.
  • ES pivot 1757.58.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Ho hum - another Day of Nothing.  I figured the Dow could move at least a bit higher on Monday, and we were indeed up early on until some afternoon selling brought us right back to where we started.  So that call was wrong - by all of one point.  And the SPX actually was up a little.  So let's move on to Tuesday.  Unfortunately, we're going to have to make it fast as the Night Owl has to do something I absolutely detest - get up early Tuesday morning.  Ugh.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Monday's doji probably reflects indecision ahead of the Fed so doesn't necessarily imply a top.  Upper BB continues to climb away.

The VIXRemains stuck in a nervous range with a small gain Monday - not much of a pattern here.  But with VVIX at support, the next move in the VIX may be higher.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 12:27 AM EDT with ES down by 0.13%.  Three white soldiers look bullish, rising RTC intact but declining indicators suggest a possible pause on Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot inches up from 1750.83  to 1757.58.  That leaves us below the new pivot, so now turns bearish.

Dollar index: Short term RTC exit for bullish setup but intermediate term downtrend intact..

Euro: After fourth doji in a row, definitely feeling toppy.  Overnight down 0.22% confirming that.

Transportation: Modest gains on Monday keep us in a rising RTC.  Friday's hanging man not confirmed - still too soon to call a top.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    6      5      6           2        0.615    601

     And the winner is...

Some charts now looking toppy, NYSE A/D line's been putting in lower highs and lower lows lately so the bias looks negative.  However, with an upcoming Fed day on Wednesday I expect a lot of sitting on hands on Tuesday similar to what we got Monday.  Accordingly, I'm calling Tuesday uncertain.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.

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